REGISTER NOW! August 1, 2022. FREE 1–Hour Virtual Uptime Elements Introduction

The Reliability Engineering Toolbox

What is failure forecasting?

Failure forecasting is a projection of failures into the future based on assumed or documented failure details. It is also known as risk analysis of future failures. For a constant failure mode system this is very straight forward. However for complicated failure modes where the failure rate increases with time (wear out failure modes) or where failure rates decrease with time (infant mortality failure modes) this becomes a more complicated analysis as described by the Abernethy Risk which is described in The New Weibull Handbook and implemented in the software package WinSMITH Weibull for predicting future failures. Like wise, reliability block diagrams are useful for predicting future failures when the authentic failure details are supplied to the Monte Carlo models.

Please note manufacturers follow two general strategies for their equipment:

1) build the equipment to avoid failures even though this increases the original capital costs, or
2) build equipment and see the original equipment at a low cost (or even a break-even costs) expecting to make profits with the sale of replacement parts.

Thus for end users of the procured equipment, it is important to know the forecasted failures in the face of suppler protest that "our equipment never fails"-in that case ask to see the sale of spare parts for similar equipment and an estimate of the number of units working to get a crude estimate of the strategy employed by the equipment supplier.

A failure is an event which renders equipment as non-useful for the intended or specified purpose during a designated time interval. The failure can be sudden, partial, or one-shot, intermittent, gradual, complete, or catastrophic. The degree of failure can be degradation or gradual, sudden, or one-shot, from weakness, from imperfections, from misuse, or so forth.

A failure mechanism includes a variety of physical processes which results in failure from chemical, electrical, thermal, or other insults.

Why use failure forecasting?

: Future failures costs money and frequently increase the risk for safety or environmental problems. For manufacturers, the forecasted failures predict impending high costs for warranty expenses which can make/break a company. With good failure forecast, you can anticipate expected failures now (after x-usage), future failures when failed units are not replaced, and future failures when failed units are replaced either with the same failure modes or with differently designed components with different failure details.

When to use failure forecasting?

: This analysis is wisely performed in during the design of the equipment, however many surprises arise from different failure modes build into the assembled product or incurred by not anticipated usage in operations.

Where to usde failure forecasting?

: Generally this analysis is made during the up-front design effort-with much disbelief the products could be "this bad". Follow-up analysis occurs when unexpected failure modes arise during operation of the equipment which causes loss of service of the equipment and high costs for the end users.

These definitions are written by H. Paul Barringer

Return to Reliability Tools

Paul Barringer

Paul Barringer, is a reliability, manufacturing, and engineering consultant. His worldwide consulting practice involves, reliability consulting, and training with a variety of discrete and continuous process manufacturing companies and service industries.

He has more than fifty years of engineering and manufacturing experience in design, production, quality, maintenance, and reliability of technical products. His experience includes both technical and bottom-line aspects of operating a business with an understanding of how reliable products and processes contribute to financial business success.

Upcoming Events

August 9 - August 11 2022

MaximoWorld 2022

View all Events
80% of newsletter subscribers report finding something used to improve their jobs on a regular basis.
Subscribers get exclusive content. Just released...MRO Best Practices Special Report - a $399 value!
Reliability Leader Fluid Cleanliness Pledge

Fluid Cleanliness is a Reliability Achievement Strategy as well as an asset life extension strategy

MaximoWorld 2022 Conference Austin Texas

Connect with leading maintenance professionals, reliability leaders and asset managers from the world's best-run companies who are driving digital reinvention.

“Steel-ing” Reliability in Alabama

A joint venture between two of the world’s largest steel companies inspired innovative approaches to maintenance reliability that incorporate the tools, technology and techniques of today. This article takes you on their journey.

Three Things You Need to Know About Capital Project Prioritization

“Why do you think these two projects rank so much higher in this method than the first method?” the facilitator asked the director of reliability.

What Is Industrial Maintenance as a Service?

Industrial maintenance as a service (#imaas) transfers the digital and/or manual management of maintenance and industrial operations from machine users to machine manufacturers (OEMs), while improving it considerably.

Three Things You Need to Know About Criticality Analysis

When it comes to criticality analysis, there are three key factors must be emphasized.

Turning the Oil Tanker

This article highlights the hidden trap of performance management systems.

Optimizing Value From Physical Assets

There are ever-increasing opportunities to create new and sustainable value in asset-intensive organizations through enhanced use of technology.

Conducting Asset Criticality Assessment for Better Maintenance Strategy and Techniques

Conducting an asset criticality assessment (ACA) is the first step in maintaining the assets properly. This article addresses the best maintenance strategy for assets by using ACA techniques.

Harmonizing PMs

Maintenance reliability is, of course, an essential part of any successful business that wants to remain successful. It includes the three PMs: predictive, preventive and proactive maintenance.