Monte Carlo simulation (modeling) is a method to solve engineering problems by sampling methods. The method applies to such things as system reliability and availability modeling by simulating random processes such as life to failure and repair times.
Mechanical components suffer from interactions and degradations of overloads, strength deterioration, wear, corrosion, process variations during the fabrication process, effects of special processes where the procedures must be controlled as discovery of the end results would result in destruction of the component, and removal of safety factors by increasing loads.
Suppliers have two strategies for testing: 1) test for success and 2) test for failures. Reliability testing produces failures, particularly when the tests are accelerated with extra loads, and this may be troublesome to have in the records for future lawsuits. Thus it is often to everyone's advantage to perform reliability test under code names to protect against the broad rules of legal discovery.
Most business decision have considerable uncertainty which implies at least two outcomes if you choose a course of action. Making decisions in the face of uncertainty requires the costs for taking action and the probability along with the cost for not taking action and the probability of the occurrence. In most cases the probabilities are not well known (maybe to one significant digit) and the costs are not well know (maybe to $10000). The quantitative assessment is called risk assessment. The issue is to take these not well identified issues and devise a strategy which can minimize exposure to risk for the business. The graphical representation of the methodology is called decision trees to reach the expected values for decision to take/not-take action.
The measure of the ability of an item to be retained in or restored to specified condition when maintenance is performed by personnel having specified skill levels, using prescribed procedures and resources.
Events/incidents are single events or occurrences that happen, especially one that is particularly significant, that results in a failure from a non-aging mechanism for reliability purposes.
Lognormal distributions are continuous life functions that have long tails to the right (display positive skewness) in time or usage. A lognormal distribution plotted on semi-log papers would appear as a normal curve.
Reliability-Centered maintenance (RCM) is a systematic planning process used to determine the maintenance requirements for a system. RCM expects the system has an inherent reliability and maintenance requirements are imposed upon the baseline of inherent safety and inherent reliability which can be no better than the worst than designed into the system.
Reliability is the probability that a device, system, or process will perform its prescribed duty without failure for a given time when operated correctly in a specified environment.
The probability of survival and of failure of components or equipment is under the condition of chance failure which means a constant instantaneous failure rate where the die-off rate is the same for any surviving (unfailed) population.
The International Electrical Congress (IEC) defines dependability as "Dependability describes the availability performance and its influencing factors: reliability performance, maintainability performance and maintenance support performance." MIL-HDBK-338 defines dependability differently as a measure of the degree to which an item is operable and capable of performing its required function at any (random) time during a specified mission profile, given that the item is available at mission start. (Item state during a mission includes the combined effects of the mission-related system R&M parameters but excludes non-mission time; see availability.) Dependability is related to reliability with the intention that dependability would be a more general concept than the measurable issues of reliability, maintainability, and maintenance.
A measure of use duration applicable to an item. For example, the life units may be starts-stops, run hours, hot-cold cycles, distances traveled, emergency starts or starts, shelf life, and other measurements which motivate failures.
A series of screens are conducted under environmental stresses to disclose weak parts and workmanship defects which require corrections and this requires and understanding of burn-in testing and ESS of which both techniques identify weak points and eliminate them by motivating early failures. Burn-in is usually a long process of operating under load(s) and at fixed temperature (in short, this is a special case of ESS) or it can be operated at varying loads and accelerated temperatures to achieve a shorter burin-in period, whereas ESS is a scientifically planned and conducted test which is usually conducted under accelerated loads to produce the same test/use results in a shorter period of time by increasing the stress on the components or assemblies. The objective of these screens is to produce a failure free product when released into operations. ESS is not intended as a test to validate compliance to a design, however it is intended to force latent defects into becoming defects before the end user finds them in day-to-day usage.